2010 Tech Predictions – More Smartphones, Location-aware software & end of the desktop?

Well, its that time of year.  The time of the year where all the pundits are speculating on the next year in high-tech.  CES is in full-swing, and many new products are being rolled out this month, from the Google Nexus One to the much rumored Apple tablet.

So, I figured I’d thrown my hat into the ring for some predictions …

1. Smartphones.  Yes, that’s right, more of them Shocking, I know.  But Apple has now set the bar for the market and all will be gunning for them.  From Google, to Motorola, to even Nokia, the company suffering the most due to the rise of the iPhone and Android operating system.Usage will continue to rise, mainly because its the one computer everyone has with them all-day, every day.  Networks will continue to get better, as well the web browsing and media watching/listening on these devices.  Oh, and lets not forget, we text  A LOT!  Smartphones make all these behaviors more simple and easy throughout the day, plus, they connect us easily to the social networking & messaging services we’ve found we cannot live without, like Facebook & Twitter.

   There will be some surprises this year, however, such as market decline of once-heralded powerhouses like Microsoft & Qualcomm, which will both turn to Android to offset the loss of their market share for high-end devices.  In addition, expect Palm to be courted heavily by a major hardware, software or phone firm.  This may be the year Palm actually gets acquired by one of several possible suitors – Nokia: to get a US smartphone presence, Microsoft: to revitalize their ailing mobile platform strategy or Sony: to finally get back into the mobile phone market in a serious way (sorry Ericsson!).

2. Location-aware software (formerly called Location-Based Solutions/Services) goes big Before the end of the year, both Four Square and Gowalla made huge headlines, and started the gold-rush in the location-aware software space.  This is only the tip of the iceberg as more and more software and network-based services are looking at how to integrate location in a meaningful way into their applications.Why do I call this Location-aware software and not LBS?  Well, first, the point of many of these software applications will not be purely about locating the user, but about how location can be used to enhance the specific application.  LBS put location too much at the forefront, and LAS will focus on making the capabilities of the app more compelling.
3. The end of the desktop? (for all but developers, designers and people in the video industry) This one is a little bit of a stretch, but follow me here.  There’s several trends you cannot refute: the rise of the smartphone, sales of laptops outpacing desktops, netbooks becoming a hot category of products & (soon) the introduction of some high-powered tablet computers from people like Apple.Give those trends, its not a far leap to think that the desktop, as we know it, will be a thing of the past for most consumers.  They’re bulky, they sit in one place, and they are not so far ahead of their mobile counterparts that they cannot be replaced for the right feature set & price.

   If I was to be even more bold, and I will be, I would guess that Apple cedes its desktop business to a clone manufacturer or licensed IHV (going back on previous injunctions against clones) so they can focus on the future of mobile computing and get away from the low margin desktop/high cost desktop business.  It unlikely Apple will leave their traditional publishing, designer & video business customers out-in-the-cold, so I can see this transition taking time.

That’s all for now.  2010 looks to be an exciting year for tech, and I can’t want to see what actual transpires!